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Foresight Update 27 - Table of Contents | Page1 | Page2 | Page3 | Page4 | Page5 |
Foresight Institute has a special interest in
systems to improve the evolution of knowledge and to enhance the
quality of discussion and decisions on complex issues. Currently
there is no good way to carry out such discussions: paper is too
slow and inconvenient, while Internet discussions - whether they
be in the form of newsgroups, static web pages, or chat sessions
- are too unstructured.
Our Web Enhancement Project
aims at adding features to the World Wide Web needed to better
carry out critical discussion. These features have been described
in the essay "Hypertext Publishing and the Evolution of
Knowledge" available
on the web and on paper from the Foresight office.
We had originally thought that this would require Foresight to produce the needed software, but fortunately this has become unnecessary by the introduction of Hyper-G by an international team (originating, as did the web itself, in Europe). Hyper-G, known as HyperWave in its commercial version, has almost all of the features on our wish list for hypertext publishing, because it was based on the early concepts of hypertext from Ted Nelson, and also explicitly designed for structured discussion:
Hyper-G client software is available for UNIX, Windows NT,
Windows 95, and is in preparation for the Macintosh. A
line-oriented terminal version of the client is also available.
However, the UNIX client is the most advanced, and can be run
under the operating system Linux on Wintel
machines, as Foresight plans to do.
Partly because they include commerically-useful features such as
subscriptions and licensing, Hyper-G or Hyper-G spinoffs are
already in use at publishing companies such as Springer, Academic
Press, Wiley, and Oxford University Press. It is also used
extensively by the European Space Agency.
Foresight can experiment with Hyper-G without betting on its long-term success as a standard. The goal is to use the basic capabilities of second-generation hypertext publishing systems by building information structures with real content. This content could later be transferred to another system that provides the same basic capabilities. Foresight hopes to show the usefulness of the advanced hypertext publishing features listed above: we may be instrumental in spreading these back into the World Wide Web as a whole. Thus, our efforts don't depend on Hyper-G and HyperWave commercial success, but on how well we demonstrate the feature set.
Our first experimental debate will be in the field of computer security, specifically language and operating system security: how can we maximize cooperation without vulnerability? We will start by examining Java-style languages. This topic has several advantages for an initial debate:
The funds for Foresight's Hyper-G server were raised at this year's Senior
Associates Gathering. This machine has now arrived and is
being configured by Russell
Whitaker, technical leader of the project. We will be putting
in a skeleton argumentation structure, and then inviting specific
security experts to join the debate one by one. The reason for
this controlled build-up of participants is that we expect to
encounter glitches in the process which will have to be solved
using social rules, rather than the procedures we can enforce
using the software. We will also have to evolve filtering
procedures.
Once it's clear that the debate software is working well, and we
are being successful at adding needed social rules, we will open
up access to the debate first to Senior Associates, later to
Foresight members and some relevant professional groups, and
eventually to the general public.
This computer security debate is only the first of many Foresight
plans to conduct on advanced technologies of public policy
importance. We hope that the debate procedures we evolve can be
of use to those debating other topics as well-including
"messy" human issues.
Those interested in assisting the project at this stage can
start to familiarize themselves with the software by reading the
book HyperWave: The Next-Generation Web Solution
(by Hermann Maurer, Addison Wesley, 1996; available free online
and by installing the client software available
free online (ftp://ftp.ncsa.uiuc.edu/Hyper-G or
ftp://ftp.utdallas.edu/pub/Hyper-G).
See the FAQ at http://www.hyperwave.com/faq.
You may also join the discussion group comp.infosystem.hyperg, or
join its mailing list mirror hyper-g@iicm.tu-graz.ac.at by
sending email to listproc@iicm.tu-graz.ac.at
with the message body: subscribe hyper-g <Your Name>
In addition, funds are needed immediately to pay for
In the longer term, we invite all Foresight members-and
eventually all web users- to join us in debate online. We
believe that full hypertext publishing capabilities are a
breakthrough equal in importance to the invention of the library.
No other tool is sufficient to deal with the complex problems to
be solved in successfully implementing nanotechnology and the
other advanced technologies now on the horizon.
For project updates, visit our web site. Donations may be
discussed with Chris Peterson at peterson@foresight.org or tel
415-917-1122, or mailed to Foresight Institute, PO Box 61058,
Palo Alto, CA 94306 USA, and are tax-deductible in the U.S.
Special thanks to Russell Whitaker for technical leadership;
and to those who donated funds for the server machine: Hughgie
Barron, Ken Blakeslee, Steve Burgess, Warren Freeman, Dan
Fylstra, Jim Lewis, David Lindbergh, Joy Martin, Chris Portman,
Gary Pullar, Dick Smith, and J. Tory.
Foresight Update 27 - Table of Contents |
The donor has provided a $5000 matching grant for every ten
new Senior Associates Foresight can obtain between now and the
end of January 1997, up to a $40,000 maximum. It will also apply
to upgrades on any Senior Associate memberships, and to any
one-time donation of cash or stock of $100 or more. (Stock
donations may provide special tax benefits if your basis is lower
than the current market value of the stock; consult your tax
advisor for details.)
This means that every new Foresight Senior Associate dollar
donated between now and the end of January, 1997 the organization
will get two more immediately. You can make your new donation
dollars go three times as far as they otherwise would!
Check our World Wide Web site for progress toward the
goal.
The deadline to qualify for this two-for-one matching grant is
January 31, 1997.
Foresight Update 27 - Table of Contents |
Foresight Senior Associates gathered at the
Holiday Inn Palo Alto October 18-20 for serious discussion,
playful estimating of future timelines, and excellent food and
conversation.
For fun, participants marked their name badges with guesstimates
of when the Feynman Grand Prize
will be awarded. Estimates ranged roughly from five to fifty
years, and in precision from decade bandwidth to single-day
definitiveness.
Foresight Chairman Eric Drexler opened the proceedings
with a discussion of "Where we've been, and where we're
going."
"Just 100 years ago people were arguing whether atoms
existed. Decades later the idea of macromolecules (such as
protein) was still controversial. By the time of the 1959 Feynman
talk, people were working 'top down' and others began to work
on molecular stuff in biology. That meant, in effect, that we had
biologists studying machines. They were not looking at things
from an engineering point of view. To consider the consequences
of that, imagine aeronautics if airplane design had remained a
sub-branch of ornithology," he suggested.
"The 1970s tossed out much of our vision of the
future--space expansion, intelligent machines, etc.-- and brought
a new focus on Limits to Growth. Despite mankind's long
history of things getting better and resources getting cheaper,
thinkers in the 1970s were advocating a contrary direction."
Meanwhile, Drexler had begun to think about programmable
molecular machines as an answer to such negative thinking. That
culminated with the publication, ten years ago, of Engines of Creation.
The book had unintended consequences, Drexler admitted. "I
made a big strategic mistake in assuming that the science
community would understand non-mathematical description and
discussion. Scientists simply could not accept it. So eventually
I wrote Nanosystems
with a different heuristic--it had to have lots of math, be
heavy, and look like a textbook. It also had to be useful to
somebody entering the field, and intimidating to potential
critics," he quipped.
Looking ahead, Drexler said, "Today; we as a society are
confused about matter, space, time, and mind. Matter: people say
we're running out of resources, but nanotechnology changes that.
Space: people say we're running out of space, but space
exploration removes that limit. Time: we're all supposed to be
dying, but with nanotechnology we'll be able to keep youthful
physiologies. Memory is mainly structure, and we can maintain it.
Mind: with nanotechnology we can make machine intelligence
systems a million times faster than our brains."
"We'll have an infinite supply of people who are willing to
say it can't be done, right up to the day it happens," he
said. "So we can spend all our time between now and the
technological singularity arguing with the ignorant, or we can
talk with people who do understand and move things along."
Al Globus described the impressive and growing team at
NASA's Ames Research Center devoted to computational
nanotechnology (see the article in Update
26). "NASA has a goal of eventual establishment
of permanent, self sufficient settlements in space," he
said. This opens new possibilities for molecular manipulation.
Chemists have added a wide range of molecular fragments to
buckyballs. This would add chemical functionality to the
excellent physical characteristics already demonstrated.
Jim Lewis and Ted Kaehler discussed current
interesting research work. Kaehler described Bruce Smith's
proposal to assemble three-dimensional arrays of proteins
attached covalently. "How do we get them to find each other
in a pool of water and get them to attach?" Kaehler asked.
"One proposal is to attach single stranded DNA to each cubic
protein molecule, then dump in another batch with complementary
DNA. This has the effect of pressing these things together; there
is a clear path to making this happen."
Jim Lewis described Richard Smalley's new nanotube probe tip,
a multiwall carbon tube about 5 nm in diameter. "And now
they're talking about a single wall nanotube glued on to the end
of that," he said. This opens new possibilities for
molecular manipulation. Chemists have added a wide range of
molecular fragments to buckyballs. This would add chemical
functionality to the excellent physical characteristics already
demonstrated.
Computational nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle of Xerox Palo
Alto Research Center provided a fascinating historical tour of
proposals in the early 1800s for mechanical computers.
"Babbage even considered binary, but rejected it. Another
guy named Fowler designed a digital machine whose active elements
were sliding rods that could be in one of three positions, so it
required less precision than Babbage's [decimal] design. There
was this entire group of people swapping ideas about mechanical
computers, and they just vanished from history. By 1850
electrical relays were in use. What would have happened if anyone
in that group used relays? Did we miss getting started with
computers by a century?" (The concept of mechanical rod
logic computers at the molecular scale was first advanced by
Drexler in Engines of Creation.)
"I conclude that the march of history depends very much upon
individuals-- people who put ideas together," he said.
Public relations consultant and Update Editor Lew
Phelps presented an analysis of the Scientific American
debate conducted on
the World Wide Web. "This is the first known example of
anyone using the Web to successfully rebut an erroneous article
in a major print publication," he said. "We'll see more
of this in the future. You no longer need to own a printing press
to have a public voice." A related discussion by public
relations consultant Ed Niehaus and author Gayle
Pergamit on communicating nanotechnology concepts led to a
lively group discussion sharing concepts and experiences related
to communication matters.
Resources for nanotechnology research continue to emerge. Among
those discussed, Foresight Webmaster Jim Lewis provided a tour of
the nanotechnology-related sites on the World Wide Web. Richard
Terra discussed his forthcoming "State of the
Field" Report on Nanotechnology. Russell Whitaker
described encouraging developments supporting Foresight's Web
Enhancement goals. (For details on the latter, see Chris Peterson's column.)
Senior Associates Gatherings are open to all Senior Associates--
those who pledge donations at various levels from $250 to $5,000
a year for five years. Interested persons should contact the
Foresight Institute offices (contact information,
Senior
Associates Membership Application).
Foresight Update 27 - Table of Contents |
Mike Pique and Warren Freeman examine Pique's computer
generated plastic and layered paper models
of protein molecules during the Senior Associates Gathering
Senior Associates test their skills at a Hands-on Molecular
Modeling session.
Foresight Update 27 - Table of Contents | Page1 | Page2 | Page3 | Page4 | Page5 |
From Foresight Update 27, originally
published 30 December 96.
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