Foresight Update 22
Page 2
A publication of the Foresight Institute
 RAND
Presents Nanotechnology Assessment
Recommends Evaluation of Prospects
RAND Corporation, the Santa
Monica-based think tank, has released a major new research paper
entitled The
Potential of Nanotechnology for Molecular Manufacturing ,
by Max Nelson and Calvin Shipbaugh.
RAND says the research was undertaken to explore the potential
for advanced manufacturing based on molecular nanotechnology. The
authors contend that much basic and applied research needs to be
undertaken to realistically assess the far-term viability of many
of the most interesting emerging concepts. Taking a U.S.-oriented
perspective-a natural one for a U.S. defense-derived
organization-they also say that a careful and objective
feasibility assessment could help stimulate near-term
achievements and prevent technological surprise by foreign
players.
In the report's preface, the authors state that "proponents
of the application of nanotechnology to molecular manufacturing
suggest that environ-mentally clean, inexpensive, and efficient
manufacturing of structures, devices, and 'smart' products based
on the flexible control of architectures and processes at an
atomic or molecular scale of precision may be feasible in the
near future (i.e., 10-20 years from the present). The ambitious
goal is to produce complex products on demand using simple raw
materials; e.g., inserting the basic chemical elements in a
molecular assembly factory to yield a common household appliance,
perhaps with sensors and actuators built-in to respond to
commands or environmental conditions. The question of whether it
is possible to achieve a stage in the foreseeable future when
such extreme capability might be viable, and if so how to develop
the field, is a point of contention in both scientific and policy
circles."
The authors review scientific progress in nano-related fields,
including "recent developments in scanning force microscopes
(SFM), using probes that can position atoms or molecules to
nanometer scales, and interest in investigating the means by
which complicated molecules with desired properties can be
modeled, synthesized, and perhaps even self-assembled. These
recent developments have motivated advocates of a 'bottom-up'
approach for manufacturing molecule-by-molecule."
They contend, however, that "exclusive use of this approach
however, misses the longer-lived history and some of the benefits
being achieved through the more familiar 'top-down' approaches.
The top-down approach is one in which macroscale components are
utilized to create nanoscale structures. This differs from the
bottom-up approach, which uses nanoscale components to create
structures. In particular, top-down structures and methods might
help with the interfacing of bottom-up structures into a
system." From the perspective of Foresight and IMM, this
statement is not controversial. It is extremely unlikely that
nanotechnology will be developed without also using top-down
technologies, since the latter comprise most technologies now in
use, including computer chip fabrication.
The RAND report addresses timing issues. "Extensive
molecular manufacturing applications, if they become
cost-effective, will probably not occur until well into the far
term," it says. "However, some products benefiting from
research into molecular manufacturing may be developed in the
near term. As initial nanomachining, novel chemistry, and protein
engineering (or other biotechnologies) are refined, initial
products will likely focus on those that substitute for existing
high-cost, lower-efficiency products. Likely candidates for these
technologies include a wide variety of sensor applications;
tailored biomedical products including diagnostics and
therapeutics; extremely capable computing and storage products;
and unique, tailored materials (i.e., smart materials using
nanoscale sensors, actuators, and perhaps controller elements)
for aerospace or similar high-cost/high-capability needs."
RAND also reviews the prospects of national competitors to the US
in molecular manufacturing. While "the United States is a
leader in this fielda number of countries are engaged in some
level of effort relevant to the foundations of molecular
nanotechnology. Although the United States has many groups
performing work related to nanotechnology and molecular
manufacturing, there are several strong competitors and potential
collaborators. Japan has large efforts that are funded
individually at a significantly higher rate than their US
counterparts and are coordinated by a dedicated national effort.
Other nations with strong research centers include China,
Denmark, France, Germany, Russia, Sweden, and the United
Kingdom," the authors state.
"The potential is enormous and could lead to extreme
miniaturization in space systems, capabilities in human
performance enhancement and medical treatment, as well as ability
to manufacture a wide variety of sophisticated products on
demand," the report says. However, it cautions,
"achieving the manufacture and control of sophisticated
molecular nanodevices from current conceptual designs may be more
difficult than anticipated. A fully credible assessment of how
far molecular manufacturing will progress in the next two decades
is not possible until incremental steps have been undertaken,
although tentative indications appear positive."
RAND addresses the key policy question of how the US should
proceed in its nanotechnology-related research, formulating four
options:
- Maintain the current laissez-faire policy toward
coordination of research efforts and resources.
- Conduct a detailed, objective working group technology
assessment of the state of the art of relevant molecular
nanotechnology research and potential applications.
- Establish a coordinator or program to oversee research
and developments.
- Create a national or international cooperative effort.
"To prevent the possibility of technological surprise, yet
not prematurely enact policies that commit funds and valuable
resources, a prudent course of action would be to create a
working group of biotechnology experts, chemists, computer
scientists, electrical engineers, materials scientists,
mechanical engineers, and physicists. This group's assessment of
a laissez-faire posture versus coordination and cooperation
should then be implemented as a basis for a rational policy about
support for molecular nanotechnology," the authors suggest.
They propose that a positive assessment of nanotechnology's
potential should lead to increased and more coordinated funding
of research, and a negative assessment should lead to a decision
to continue current funding levels.
The report's table of contents indicates its scope:
Chapter One: Introduction
Definition
Motivation
Chapter Two: Trends and Goals
Historical Developments
Potential Benefits
Near Term
Far Term
Chapter Three: Developing Incremental Checkpoints
Elements of Nanofabrication
Key Steps
Development Risks
Chapter Four: National and International Research Efforts
Categorization
Leading Nations
The United States and Japan: A Comparison of Support
Chapter Five: Conclusions and Recommendation
Competitive Status
Fundamental Research Support
Incremental Actions Needed
Delay or Forego New Policy Action
Establish Coordinator(s)
Establish New Program(s)
Cooperative Efforts
Recommendation
Appendix: Research Centers in Nanotechnology and Related Areas
by Nation
Bibliography
One oversight: despite a history of the field and a bibliography,
the report does not cite the journal article generally regarded
as the first scientific paper published in the field of molecular
nanotechnology, "Molecular
engineering: An approach to the development of general
capabilities for molecular manipulation," Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences
USA (1981). The paper has been widely cited, especially within
the protein engineering (i.e. self-assembly) literature. But this
is a relatively minor omission in what is overall a creditable
first effort by a policy think tank. We look forward to further
work by the authors in charting the progress of this field.
The report is available from RAND for $7.50 plus handling charges
and applicable California sales tax. Normal delivery is 3-4
weeks, but rapid delivery can be arranged at extra cost. It can
be ordered via the World Wide Web through RAND's Home Page
(http://www.rand.org). You may also order by telephone, (310)
451-7002; fax, (310) 451-6915; e-mail order@rand.org; or mail at:
Distribution Services, RAND, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA
90407-2138.
Nanotechnology
Conference Doubles in Size
Fourth
Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology
[Editor's Note: The above link is to the conference
archive web site. For additional information about the
conference, see Update
#23.]
November 9-11, 1995
Palo Alto, California
Sponsor:
Foresight Institute
Cosponsors:
Corporate Sponsors
With conference registrations running over double the number
last time, conference chairman Dr.
Ralph Merkle urges Foresight members to register and reserve
their hotel rooms promptly. For the latest on the
conference, including abstracts and preprints, see on the
World Wide Web: http://www.nano.xerox.com /nano. Abstracts and
preprints will continue to be uploaded as they are received.
The fourth event in this series-the first nanotechnology
conference series, started in 1989-this conference is a meeting
of scientists and technologists working in fields leading toward
molecular nanotechnology: thorough three-dimensional structural
control of materials and devices at the molecular level. The
conference will cover topics relevant to the pursuit of molecular
control, drawing from fields such as:
- supramolecular chemistry and self assembly
- proximal probes (e.g. STM, AFM)
- biochemistry and protein engineering
- computational chemistry and molecular modeling
- computer science (e.g. computational models, system
design issues)
- natural molecular machines (e.g. flagellar motor,
ribosome)
- materials science
- mechanical engineering (CAD) and robotics
- many others
Developments in these fields are converging, opening
opportunities for fruitful collaboration in developing new
instruments, devices, and capabilities.
In addition to the oral presentations, there will be a poster
session.
Feynman Prize
The 1995 Feynman
Prize in Nanotechnology (and accompanying $10,000 award) will
be presented at the meeting.
Demonstrations
Leading vendors will demonstrate products useful in the
pursuit of molecular control, including molecular modeling
software and hardware, and proximal probe systems (e.g. STM).
Journal and Book Publication of Proceedings
The proceedings of the conference will be refereed and
published in a special issue of the international journal
Nanotechnology (and later in book form). Preprints and
abstracts will continue to be available on the Web.
Site and Accommodations
Conference sessions will be held at the Hyatt Hotel in Palo
Alto. Accommo-dation arrangements should be made directly with
the hotel. Reservations should be made by October 23; when making
reservations, mention that you are attending the "Foresight
Nanotech-nology Conference" to obtain the lower conference
room rate. Deposits in the amount of the first night's stay plus
tax are required to guarantee reservations; these are refundable
up to 6 PM on the date of arrival. Room rate: $93, single or
double occupancy, plus 10% local tax.
Hyatt Hotel
4219 El Camino Real
Palo Alto, CA 94306
(415) 493-8000 tel
(415) 858-1151 fax
Registration Fees
Regular $400
Academic, nonprofit, government $325
Student $125
One day (specify day) $160
Registration forms are available from: Foresight Institute,
Box 61058, Palo Alto, CA 94306, USA; tel. 415-324-2490; fax
415-324-2497;
email foresight@cup.portal.com.
Forms are also available via the World Wide Web at http://www.nano.xerox.com/nano.
Preliminary Conference Schedule
Web: http://www.nano.xerox.com/nanotech/nano4/schedule.html
Wednesday Evening, November 8
8:00 - 10:00 Welcome Reception
Thursday, November 9
9:00 - 9:30 Introduction, Ralph Merkle, Conference Chairman
9:30 - 10:15 Richard Smalley, Rice University, Nanotechnology at
Rice
10:15 - 10:45 Break
10:45 - 11:30 William A. Goddard III, Caltech, Computational
Chemistry and Nanotechnology
11:30 - 12:15 J. Fraser Stoddart, University of Birmingham, UK,
The Art and Science of Self- assembling Molecular Machines
12:15 - 1:45 Feynman Prize Luncheon
1:45 - 2:30 Eric Drexler, Institute for Molecular Manufacturing,
Directions in Nanotechnology
2:30 - 3:15 Aristides Requicha, USC, Molecular Robotics
3:15 - 3:30 Break
3:30 - 4:15 Admiral David Jeremiah, USN (Ret.), Technology
Strategies and Alliances, Nanotechnology and Global Security
4:15 - 9:00 Demos, exhibits, posters, sign up for Park Scientific
Instruments field trips on Saturday, Nov. 11
Dinner on your own
Friday, November 10
9:00 - 9:45 Tracy Handel, UC Berkeley, Protein Design
9:45 - 10:30 Richard Colton, NRL, Tip Surface Interactions
10:30 - 11:00 Break
11:00 - 11:45 Charles Musgrave, MIT, Chemical Synthesis of
Nanomachinery
11:45 - 12:30 Donald Brenner, North Carolina State University,
Simulated Engineering of Nanostructures
12:30 - 2:00 Luncheon: Elizabeth Enayati, Weil Gotshal &
Manges; Intellectual Property Update
2:00 - 2:30 Ralph Merkle, Xerox PARC, Design Considerations for
an Assembler
2:30 - 3:15 George Whitesides, Harvard, Self Assembly and
Nanotechnology
3:15 - 3:45 Break
3:45 - 4:15 Gernot Pomrenke, ARPA, Nanoelectronics at ARPA
4:15 - 4:35 Neil Jacobstein, Teknowledge and IMM, Entrepreneuring
in Molecular Manufacturing: Lessons from the Computer Industry
4:35 - 5:20 Panel: Paths to Molecular Manufacturing
Dinner on your own
Saturday
1:30 pm, 4:30 pm, Field Trips to Park Scientific Instruments
for STM demonstration
Saturday Morning, November 11
9:00 - 9:30 Bruce Paul Gaber, NRL; Towards the Molecular
Machine Shop - Spatially Controlled Enzymatic Modification of
Solid Surfaces
9:30 - 10:00 Paul E. Sheehan, Harvard; Nanomachining,
Manipulation and Fabrication by Force Microscopy
10:00 - 10:30 Geoff Leach, Royal Melbourne Institute of
Technology; Advances in Molecular CAD 10:30 - 11:00 Break
11:00 - 11:30 Rod Ruoff, Molecular Physics Lab, SRI; Experimental
Study of the Mechanical Properties of Nanotubes and Nanorods
11:30 - 12:00 Subhash Saini, NASA Ames; High Performance Parallel
Computation Nanotechnology
12:00 - 1:30 Lunch on your own
Saturday Afternoon, November 11
1:30 - 2:00 Tom McKendree, USC, Implications of Molecular
Nanotechnology Technical Performance Parameters on Previously
Defined Space System Architectures
2:00 - 2:30 Stephen L. Gillett, University of Nevada, Near-Term
Nanotechology: Nanotechnology, Pollution Control and Resources
2:30 - 3:00 David C. Turner NRL; Patterned Microtubule Assemblies
for Kinesin-Based Transport
3:00 - 3:30 Break
3:30 - 4:00 Paul S. Weiss, Penn State University, Nanometer-Scale
Features and Properties in Self-Assembled Systems
4:00 - 4:30 Tanya C. Sienko, National Institute of Science and
Technology Policy, Japan; The Track of Japanese Nanotechnology
Efforts: Present, Players, and Possibilities
4:30 - 5:30 Optional conference planning meeting for the 1997
Foresight Conference
5:30 End
1995 Feynman Prize Judges
Judges for this year's Feynman Prize in Nanotechnology are:
- K. Eric Drexler,
molecular nanotechnologist, Institute for Molecular
Manufacturing
- Carl Feynman, computer scientist
- William
A. Goddard III, professor of chemistry and
applied physics, Caltech
- Tracy
Handel, professor of molecular and cell biology,
UC Berkleley
- Neil Jacobstein, chairman, Institute for Molecular
Manufacturing; president, Teknowledge
- Arthur
Kantrowitz, professor of engineering, Dartmouth
College
- Ralph C. Merkle,
computational nanotechnologist, Xerox Palo Alto Research
Center
- Marvin
Minsky, professor, MIT Media Lab
- Charles Musgrave, Dept. of Chemical Engineering,
MIT; winner of 1993 Feynman Prize
- Nils
Nilsson, professor of computer science, Robotics
Laboratory, Stanford
- Heinrich
Rohrer, IBM Zurich; Nobel Laureate in Physics
- George
M. Whitesides, professor of chemistry, Harvard
For further information on the Prize, contact Foresight or see
on the Web: http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/feynmanPrize.html
A Conference Research Preview: AFM
Atomic Force Microscope Measurement of
Binding Force between Complementary Strands of DNA
Richard Colton of the Naval Research Laboratory will
speak on "Tip Surface Interactions" at the Fourth
Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology.
Poly-inosine (I) linked to surfaces by base pair interactions
with Cytosine (C)
Force required to uncoil a single poly-inosine strand and break
base pair interactions
Senior
Associates Get Active
For the best discussions of nanotechnology, attend the
Senior Associate Gathering
This year's Senior Associate Gathering has been expanded to a
full weekend, November 11-12 with a welcoming reception on the
evening of Nov. 10, to enable the group to take on new projects
and get some real work done at the meeting. Areas to be tackled
include nanotechnology technical development paths, uploading all
Foresight nanotechnology information onto the World Wide Web
(with new links), Web enhancement back links and filtering,
computer security issues (important for safe development of
nanotechnology), building a nanotechnology database, and analysis
of nanotechnology-oriented fiction.
These Gatherings are the largest assembly of those familiar with
nanotechnology and its expected impacts, and are an ideal way to
get to know Foresight, IMM, and CCIT principals in a relaxed
setting. Attendees of past events have reported that their most
enjoyable feature is the ability to get to know others who are
intensely interested in nanotechnology. By attending annually,
the Senior Associate interactions develop into business
relationships and long-term friendships. Some informal
matchmaking between entrepreneurs and investors also goes on at
these meetings.
Senior Associates make a
five-year pledge to Foresight, IMM, or CCIT of between $250 and
$5000 annually. Those wishing to join the group in time for the
Gathering are asked to contact Foresight as soon as possible, and
to make hotel reservations immediately at the Hyatt in Palo Alto
or other nearby hotel.
Contact Foresight Institute, tel 415-917-1122, fax 415-917-1123,
email foresight@foresight.org.
From Foresight Update 22, originally
published 15 October 1995.
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