Foresight Update 7
page 1
A publication of the Foresight Institute
 Stanford
Hosts Nanotechnology Conference
by Ralph C. Merkle
The First
Foresight Conference on Nanotechnology, hosted by the
Stanford Department of Computer Science and sponsored by the
Foresight Institute and Global Business Network, was the first
major conference to examine molecular systems engineering as a
path to nanotechnology. Held on October 27-29 in the wake of the
Bay Area earthquake, the conference in Palo Alto drew 150 invited
participants from three continents and many disciplines.
The conference was designed as a small meeting for researchers
working in the enabling sciences and technologies leading to
nanotechnology, with the goal of showing them the
state-of-the-art in relevant fields and encouraging new
collaborative efforts crossing disciplinary lines. Conferees were
encouraged to be technically critical of all ideas presented to
avoid a problem common to new interdisciplinary fields: lack of
discipline.
The Foresight Institute was especially pleased to have attendees
from outside the U.S.: Japan, England, and Italy. Organizations
represented at the meeting included major universities and
companies, such as MIT, Caltech, University of Tokyo, IBM, and
Bell Labs. Financial assistance for the meeting was donated by Du
Pont, one of the companies most active in the enabling sciences.
The Saturday sessions featured scientists defining the state of
the art in various enabling technologies leading to
nanotechnology. By Saturday afternoon, participants had a good
overview of where work stands in these fields: further along than
conference chairman Eric Drexler predicted in Engines of Creation
(1986), but still an unknown number of decades away from
nanotechnology, which was defined as "thorough control of
the structure of matter."
Building systems at the molecular level
Researchers in protein design, chemistry, biochemistry,
biology, scanning probe microscopy, quantum electronics, computer
science, micromachines, physics, molecular modeling, and
molecular electronics were drawn together to discuss a common
theme: understanding and building structures, devices, and
systems on the scale of molecules.
The excitement was palpable. Michael D. Ward of Du Pont described
the meeting as "one of the most stimulating" he has
attended. Regarding nanotechnology he stated that "the drive
to achieve that goal certainly promises to stimulate innovative
research in molecular systems engineering." Peter Schwartz
of the Global Business Network remarked: "This is likely to
be a seminal event, seen from the turn of the century."
The meeting included a strong presence from Japan. Conference
chairman Eric Drexler stated that "We need to embark upon an
international collaboration to develop nanotechnology, but the
U.S. is not yet ready to support its end of such a cooperative
effort. Japan has identified what we call 'molecular systems
engineering' as a national goal, and is commiting substantial
multidisciplinary resources to the effort. The U.S. must join in
or risk being left behind."
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Components of molecular size could
make desk-top computers of
the future more powerful than all computers in existence
today
combined |
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Nanotechnology has been described as a key manufacturing
technology of the 21st century, which will be able to manufacture
almost any chemically stable structure at low cost. Such precise
fabrication abilities could be used both to improve existing
products and to build products that are impossible to manufacture
with present technology. Based on estimates of parts count and
power dissipation, components of molecular size could make
desk-top computers of the future more powerful than all computers
in existence today combined. Devices smaller than a red blood
cell could be constructed to circulate through the body and
remove fat deposits or destroy infectious organisms. These are
potential long-term applications of nanotechnology, but the
conference started with an examination of where we stand today in
efforts to engineer molecular systems. Several venture
capitalists were present to scout out near-term commercial
applications of these efforts.
Molecular state-of-the-art
 Michael
Ward of Du Pont described the design of self-assembling systems
by controlling the charge on individual molecules. If the pattern
of electrostatic charge on individual molecules is properly
designed, then it is possible to manipulate many properties of
resulting molecular aggregates.
Federico Capasso, head of Quantum Phenomena and Device Research
at AT&T Bell Labs, discussed current work on exploiting
quantum effects in devices built with controlled energy band gap
variations on a nanometer scale. Fabrication is currently a major
limit in building and commercializing smaller devices.
Tracy Handel of Du Pont discussed the de novo design and
construction of a protein by William F. DeGrado's group. This
work provides a dramatic illustration that protein engineering is
possible, and thus that objects of multi-nanometer scale can be
designed and built to precise molecular specifications.
Jay Ponder, of the Department of Molecular Biophysics and
Biochemistry at Yale, described systems for molecular modeling
and for the computer-aided design of proteins. He reports that an
algorithm developed in collaboration with Frederic Richards has
been quite successful in generating sequences of hydrophobic
amino acids which will successfully pack to form the core of a
protein with a specified backbone geometry. Molecular modeling is
of general importance in molecular systems engineering because
the proposed structures are at present often expensive to
synthesize and characterize; longer-term proposals (under
examination for exploratory purposes) may involve structures that
are entirely beyond today's synthetic capabilties. In either
case, molecular modeling can help distinguish between workable
and unworkable proposals.
Robert Birge, Director of the Center for Molecular Electronics at
Syracuse University, reported on attempts to build a large
optical memory with access times below 2 nanoseconds, using
bacteriorhodopsin as a molecular switching element. They
currently can achieve 20 nanosecond access times, the major
limitation being the speed at which the optical beam can be
positioned to "read" or "write" single bits.
A later talk by Hiroyuki Sasabe of Japan's Institute for Physical
and Chemical Research reported on the current state of molecular
engineering research in Japan. He described a broad range of
interdisciplinary projects in "intelligent materials"
and molecular electronics. Dr. Sasabe's talk and discussions with
Japanese researchers indicated that Japan regards molecular
systems engineering as a national priority, and is investing
heavily.
Joseph Mallon, Co-president of Nova Sensor, described the wide
ranging abilities of current micromachines. These devices,
typically measured in tens of microns, are made primarily of
silicon using semiconductor fabrication technology, but are
mechanical in nature. Electrostatic motors, gears, levers,
joints, sensors, turbines, pumps, and a wide variety of other
mechanical devices have been made in this size range and shown to
work.
Physics and computation
John Foster, manager of Molecular Studies for Manufacturing at
IBM's Almaden Research Center, presented work with STM (scanning
tunneling microscopy) technology, describing advances in both
surface imaging and surface modifications. Achievements include
pinning individual molecules to a surface.
Norman Margolus, of MIT's Laboratory for Computer Science,
explained the known theoretical limits to computation, perhaps
more properly termed the lack of known limits. Quantum
uncertainty, thermal noise, and other factors commonly thought to
limit computation are, instead, merely constraints. By designing
computers in an appropriate way (for example, by building
reversible computers) these constraints can at least in principle
be satisfied without loss of speed and without requiring any
fixed energy dissipation per logic operation. Even with practical
constraints, quantum computers seem possible in which gate
operation energy costs are smaller than thermal vibrational
energies, and gate speeds in the femtosecond range seem
plausible.
Development pathway proposed
Eric Drexler presented recent work that clarifies technical
issues in the design of an "assembler," a device
capable of guiding the synthesis of virtually any specified
chemically stable structure via positional control of chemical
reaction sites. Both in his talk and in an accompanying
inch-thick preliminary draft, he outlined the design of a
sub-micron scale articulated mechanism capable of positioning its
tip with a standard deviation in position of less than 0.04
nanometers, despite both thermal and quantum effects. He also
presented design sketches for proto-assemblers: cruder devices
that might be made in the next decade which could be used both to
experiment with positional control of chemical reactions and to
build more sophisticated devices. His proposal that STM and AFM
(atomic force microscope) tips might be capped by engineered
molecular structures, thus providing precise atomic control of
the structure at the tip (something that is notably lacking at
the present time), was met with particular interest. Such a
device was seen as a first step on the path to nanotechnology,
also termed molecular manufacturing.
Consequences considered
Several talks explored the future implications and policy
issues raised by this new technology. This process was perhaps
the other major achievement of the meeting: consideration of the
consequences of a powerful new technology decades before
development is completed.
Bill Joy, Vice President for R&D of Sun Microsystems,
described the progress to be expected in computer hardware as
nanotechnology is approached and finally achieved. To get across
the power of these machines, he introduced a new unit of measure:
the number of Vax-years per screen refresh (i.e. the
amount of computing which could be done per screen 'flicker' on a
computer). With nanotechnology this comes to millennia of Vax
computer time per refresh. Even Bill Joy, known for his long-term
outlook, admitted having trouble envisioning what to do with this
level of computing power.
Lester Milbrath, Director of the Reseach Program in Environment
and Society at the State University of New York at Buffalo,
expressed his concern about possible abuses of the technology.
Although it could be used to protect and restore the environment,
he doubts both that it can be developed in time to head off the
environmental problems now facing us, and doubts that we will be
wise enough to use it properly. These concerns were addressed in
additional talks devoted to public policy issues.
My own talk discussed techiques for controlling artificial
self-replicating systems. While attractive from an economic point
of view, such systems must be designed to avoid any opportunity
for unchecked replication and mutation. While "Star
Trek" has popularized the idea that "nanites"
could rapidly evolve into intelligent social beings capable of
negotiating for their own planet, this popular vision appears
highly implausible. The simplest and most practical artificial
self-replicating systems will have inflexible designs and special
raw-material requirements, making them unlike anything able to
survive in nature. Nonetheless, regulation of the design and use
of such systems seems essential to ensure that dangerous new
capabilities are not added by irresponsible or malicious parties.
Societal effects
Greg Fahy, a researcher with the American Red Cross, discussed
the medical implications of progress toward nanotechnology. Aging
is a consequence of molecular changes that take place within the
body, including changes in genes and their expression.
Experimenters have successfully slowed aging in experimental
animals; if this work can be extended to humans it should result
in increased decades of healthy life. Progress in molecular
design on the path to nanotechnology is likely to continue and
strengthen this trend, eventually allowing the retention of good
health for a prolonged period.
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| Experimenters have successfully
slowed aging in experimental animals |
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The conference closed with two presentations on the broader
impacts of technological advance. Economist Gordon Tullock of the
University of Arizona cited historical trends showing that,
although scattered individuals and groups have been hurt
economically by technological advances, the overall effects have
been positive. Arthur Kantrowitz of Dartmouth--an Advisor to the
Foresight Institute--argued for keeping research programs open
rather than classified, suggesting that if classified programs
must exist, they will benefit from parallel research programs
which are open.
A conference proceedings volume is in progress, edited by James
Lewis of Oncogen in Seattle. The Foresight Institute plans to
make available audio and videotapes of the presentations; these will be announced
in Update when available. In addition to the
speakers, the meeting included demonstrations of hardware and
software: a scanning tunneling microscope (Digital Instruments),
graphics hardware (Silicon Graphics, Sun, and Stardent), and
molecular modeling software (Biosym, Tripos, and Tektronix).
Conference coverage in the press includes Science News
(Nov 4) and expected writeups in Scientific American
and The Economist.
While it is too early to tell the ultimate impact of this first
international conference on nanotechnology, it has clearly raised
the level of interest and focused greater attention on both the
technology and its consequences. It may well prove to have been
the seminal event in the coalescence of a new field and in the
emergence of a new and powerful technology.
Dr. Merkle's
interests range from neurophysiology to computer security; he
also lectures on nanotechnology.
Upcoming
Events
Nanotechnology: Molecular Engineering and its
Implications, January 30-31, MIT Room 66-110. Symposium
sponsored by the MIT Nanotechnology Study Group. See writeup
elsewhere in this issue.
World Economic Forum, Feb. 1-7, Davos,
Switzerland. Annual meeting for corporate executives, to include
a plenary-session panel on "Technological Turbulences"
with FI's president, Eric Drexler; Nobel prizewinners James
Watson and David Baltimore; the chair of MIT's chemistry
department, Mark Wrighton; and the director of the Institute for
Advanced Study, Dr. Golberger. Drexler will present a separate
briefing on nanotechnology. Contact: phone (41/22) 736 02 43; fax
(41/22) 786 27 44.
Second Technology, Entertainment, and Design
Communications Conference, Feb. 22-25, Monterey (Calif.)
Conference Center. Speakers include Nicholas Negroponte (MIT
Media Lab), John Sculley, Allan Kay, and Bill Atkinson (Apple),
Ted Nelson (hypertext), and Jaron Lanier (virtual reality). $695.
Contact 213-831-4225.
Nanotechnology, topic of Carnegie Mellon School
of Computer Science Distinguished Lecture, tentative date March
21, given by Eric Drexler.
Multimedia Expo, March 26-28, New York Hilton,
NYC. Conference and exhibit of multimedia, hypermedia, and
interactive technologies. Contact 212-226-4141.
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Updated
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From Foresight Update 7, originally
published 15 December 1989.
Foresight thanks Dave Kilbridge for converting Update 7 to
html for this web page.
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